Prediction

Global Ocean Assimilation Data
BCC Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (BCC_GODAS) includes observational data pre-processing system, variation interpolation analysis system and its corresponding dynamic ocean model. A 4-D data assimilation scheme is adopted in the interpolation analysis system. A four-week window is opened, in which the observational data is interpolated trough an interpolation analysis system with certain weight. Cost functional extreme is calculated with a three-dimensional variation method at space scale. The dynamic ocean model is L30T63 OGCM 1.0. The assimilation results of BCC_GODAS system (such as SST, SSTA, El Nino indexes, temperature change in the sub-surface of the ocean, etc.) are consistent with NCEP’s assimilation data. It now operationally provides reliable initial ocean data to BCC coupled ocean-atmosphere model (BCC_CM1.0) to make seasonal and annual prediction.
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Operational Model Forecast Products
Since the establishment of the operational system of dynamic short-term climate prediction models in BCC in 2002, it underwent continuous development and improvement. Up to now, it has been used in the climate prediction on monthly, seasonal and annual scales and during the flooding season as well as in the Experiment of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Prediction for two consecutive years. The Monthly Dynamical Extended-Range Forecasts are produced on the 2nd, 12th and 22nd of each month, and prepares the seasonal forecast of spring, summer, autumn and winter before the 20th of February, May, August and November respectively on a regular basis. The seasonal predictions are updated monthly since Jan 2005.
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more...Dynamical Extended Range Forcast
The monthly dynamical extended-range forecasts are produced by the BCC_AGCM2.2 model, which is the second generation operational atmospheric model developed by Beijing Climate Center (BCC). The BCC-AGCM2.0.1 model is a spectral model with the horizontal T106 truncation and 26 vertical levels. The model is developed based on the NCAR CAM3, and it has been adjusted with specific referenced atmosphere and surface pressure. Some major adjustments in physical parameterizations are as follows. The introduction......
more...Seasonal climate prediction
The BCC_CSM1.2 model is employed inseasonal climate prediction. The model is based on the BCC_CSM1.1 with improvement in the model horizontal resolution and several parts of the parameterization schemes. The current atmospheric component is the BCC_AGCM2.2 model, with T106 horizontal resolution, and 26 vertical levels; the land surface component is BCC_AVIM1.0,with horizontal resolutionof T106; the ocean component of the model is MOM_L40, tripolar grid, with horizontal resolution of 1 degree in longitude......